transcript
show notes
Brian Szytel reports markets were essentially flat, while bonds moved as the 10-year yield rose 3 bps to 4.66; oil was slightly lower amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz deal talk. Economic data was mostly positive, but headline PCE was 0.3 vs 0.2 expected (3.7% YoY) while core PCE matched expectations at 0.2 (3.3% YoY), lifting Fed futures to a 40% chance of a September hike, which he views as largely a token 25 bps timing debate into Q4. He previews Jackson Hole and Fed hawk Warsh, focusing on potential balance-sheet discussion amid Treasury plans to issue more short-term debt and buy back about $4B long-term. A listener question prompts discussion of debt absorption, real yields, overindebtedness as deflationary, and currency depreciation as a release valve, citing Japan’s weakening yen alongside rising JGB yields. Other data: durable goods 1.1% vs 0.5%, personal income 0.4% vs 0.2%, spending 0.2, and Q2 GDP unchanged at 1.5% with nominal GDP in the 6s.
00:00 Market Wrap Overview
00:25 Bonds Oil Geopolitics
00:55 PCE Inflation Update
01:38 Fed Hike Odds
02:06 Jackson Hole Treasury Moves
03:09 Balance Sheet QT Talk
04:04 Debt Issuance Explained
05:16 Japan Yen Release Valve
06:04 Other Economic Data
06:45 GDP And Closing
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
