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The Dividend Cafe · August 13 · 8 min

Thursday - August 13, 2026

Brian Szytel reviews a broad market rally with the Dow up 69 points, the S&P 500 up two-thirds of a percent, and the Nasdaq up eight-tenths, alongside a modest bond rally as the 10-year yield fell three basis points to 4.65; WTI oil declined about 2.5% to $81. He highlights disinflationary data following a cooler CPI, with PPI coming in flat versus expectations of +0.2 and core PPI at 0.2 versus 0.3, putting core PPI at 4.2% year over year. Fed futures shifted, with September hike odds falling to about 32% from over 50% two days prior, while fundamentals remain strong despite valuation concerns near 22x. Weekly jobless claims were slightly worse at 209k versus 204k. He also discusses how inflation can erode sovereign debt burdens, risks of high debt-to-GDP (U.S. ~120%), and contrasts with Japan’s 204% given domestic ownership of JGBs. 00:00 Market Rally Recap 00:46 Inflation Data Boost 01:55 Rates Expectations Shift 02:26 Valuations Versus Fundamentals 03:08 Weekly Claims And Geopolitics 03:33 Debt And Inflation Playbook 04:54 US Debt To GDP Context 05:35 Japan Comparison And Scale 06:24 Wrap Up And Next Episode Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

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Brian Szytel reviews a broad market rally with the Dow up 69 points, the S&P 500 up two-thirds of a percent, and the Nasdaq up eight-tenths, alongside a modest bond rally as the 10-year yield fell three basis points to 4.65; WTI oil declined about 2.5% to $81. He highlights disinflationary data following a cooler CPI, with PPI coming in flat versus expectations of +0.2 and core PPI at 0.2 versus 0.3, putting core PPI at 4.2% year over year. Fed futures shifted, with September hike odds falling to about 32% from over 50% two days prior, while fundamentals remain strong despite valuation concerns near 22x. Weekly jobless claims were slightly worse at 209k versus 204k. He also discusses how inflation can erode sovereign debt burdens, risks of high debt-to-GDP (U.S. ~120%), and contrasts with Japan’s 204% given domestic ownership of JGBs.

00:00 Market Rally Recap

00:46 Inflation Data Boost

01:55 Rates Expectations Shift

02:26 Valuations Versus Fundamentals

03:08 Weekly Claims And Geopolitics

03:33 Debt And Inflation Playbook

04:54 US Debt To GDP Context

05:35 Japan Comparison And Scale

06:24 Wrap Up And Next Episode

Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com

TheBahnsenGroup.com

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