Licensing AI, the Memory Crunch, H200s to China & Is It a Bubble? — with Adam Goodwin

In the span of eighteen days this summer, the Commerce Department gave Anthropic ninety minutes to pull its two most powerful models offline — and then quietly let them back on. How did we end up with a de facto AI licensing regime without anyone actually passing one? For the first episode of The AI Power Podcast, Greg sits down with Adam Goodwin — former Senate staffer, Greg's old colleague from Blue Origin, and now president of Goodwin Strategies — for a wide-ranging tour of the AI policy stories that actually matter right now. They dig into the Mythos and Fable shutdown and Project Glasswing; whether OpenAI's cooperation (and rumored 5% government stake) means Washington is licensing AI in all but name; the DRAM shortage now pushing up the price of your next iPhone; China's memory champions and the fight over letting Apple buy CXMT chips; why Beijing suddenly wants those NVIDIA H200s after all; the morale crisis inside the Bureau of Industry and Security; the trillion-dollar bull-and- bear case on an AI bubble; how Chinese distillation of American models threatens the whole business model; and the coming "SaaSpocalypse." Chapters: 00:00 – Meet Adam Goodwin 1:18 – 90 minutes to shut down: Mythos, Fable & Project Glasswing 06:33 – Is Washington licensing AI in all but name? 11:03 – The DRAM shortage and the $200 price hike 17:04 – China's memory champions: YMTC & CXMT 28:03 – Why Beijing reversed course on the H200 38:21 – Inside a struggling Bureau of Industry and Security 42:08 – The trillion-dollar question: is AI a bubble? 52:06 – Distillation, DeepSeek & the copying arms race 1:03:56 – The "SaaSpocalypse" See Greg's full research archive, and the Decision Tree newsletter at decisiontreeresearch.com.