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Plausibly Deniable · Friday · 1 hr 46 min

The Rapture Will Be Vertical | Noah Smith

Lukas and Saila talk about geopolitics, technology, culture, and modern life with Noah Smith. They discuss the U.S.–China rivalry, drone warfare, public opinion, political polarization, and how social media fueled woke-era cancellation campaigns. The conversation turns to AI's impact on research, entry-level work, corporate trust, and manufacturing, before exploring dating, intimacy, short-form video, status, creativity, and angel investing. Along the way, they trade stories about Japan, fountain pens, praying mantises, and the strange incentives of online life.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press___________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgOur tools are available at: https://plausiblydeniable.org/tools/Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscoreNoah: https://x.com/Noahpinion[TIMESTAMPS]00:00 Opening teaser and introducing Noah Smith00:30 From blogger to pundit and Substack success03:55 A fake U.S. embassy in Taiwan05:38 Did Japan peak in the 2000s?06:42 Fountain pens and expensive tastes09:40 The strange economics of luxury goods10:32 U.S.–China rivalry and broken alliances12:05 The “porcupine and decouple” strategy13:47 Drones and the defense of smaller nations15:06 Why superpowers avoid costly wars16:25 Whose public opinion matters?18:40 Israel–Palestine and American political divisions20:06 China's elite conflicts and military purges22:47 The 48-hour window for military operations23:25 China's White Paper protests and lockdowns25:30 How authoritarian leaders respond to dissent27:25 American alliances and political fragmentation28:30 Centralized versus distributed power30:50 Wartime powers and national unity33:12 How Chinese and Americans see each other34:55 Anti-Indian sentiment and regional grievances36:02 Cancel culture as a status competition38:39 How technology empowered cancel mobs41:05 The historical roots of woke ideology44:23 How social media collapsed cultural boundaries47:43 Defining woke and the limits of cancellation49:58 Noah joins a cancel mob52:24 When culture-war beliefs become policy54:36 Mississippi literacy reforms and luxury beliefs56:17 Why so few cancellation targets fought back58:10 Sincere beliefs and ideological contradictions01:00:05 Defining racism and rhetorical power01:02:30 AI-generated illustrations versus Excel charts01:03:30 Can AI accelerate its own development?01:04:14 AI coding and technical debt01:05:45 Will AI eliminate junior jobs?01:06:10 Lessons from 1980s Japanese employment01:08:00 Workplace trust and AI-powered generalists01:10:06 AI fraud, KYC and enduring companies01:12:23 Japanese small businesses and solopreneurs01:14:24 Labor hoarding and “messy jobs”01:16:10 Robots, factories and economies of scale01:18:00 AI moats and the return of physical capital01:19:14 Billionaires, status and shitposting01:20:54 Praying mantises and “nature is healing”01:24:05 Viagra, dopamine and libido01:26:06 Can technology solve sexual problems?01:28:05 Dating apps and extended adolescence01:30:10 Can tech sustain desire in long relationships?01:32:06 Artificial intimacy versus real love01:33:55 The short-form video “rapture”01:35:23 Why endless scrolling lowers quality01:36:50 Attention spans and entertainment fast food01:38:23 Books, artistic taste and status games01:40:07 Can we ever know someone's real motives?01:42:53 AI startups Noah has invested in01:45:05 Angel investing as a social activity01:46:35 Managing risk in angel investing01:48:12 Online avatars and bisexuality jokes01:51:30 Closing remarks

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Lukas and Saila talk about geopolitics, technology, culture, and modern life with Noah Smith. They discuss the U.S.–China rivalry, drone warfare, public opinion, political polarization, and how social media fueled woke-era cancellation campaigns. The conversation turns to AI's impact on research, entry-level work, corporate trust, and manufacturing, before exploring dating, intimacy, short-form video, status, creativity, and angel investing. Along the way, they trade stories about Japan, fountain pens, praying mantises, and the strange incentives of online life.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press___________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgOur tools are available at: https://plausiblydeniable.org/tools/Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscoreNoah: https://x.com/Noahpinion[TIMESTAMPS]00:00 Opening teaser and introducing Noah Smith00:30 From blogger to pundit and Substack success03:55 A fake U.S. embassy in Taiwan05:38 Did Japan peak in the 2000s?06:42 Fountain pens and expensive tastes09:40 The strange economics of luxury goods10:32 U.S.–China rivalry and broken alliances12:05 The “porcupine and decouple” strategy13:47 Drones and the defense of smaller nations15:06 Why superpowers avoid costly wars16:25 Whose public opinion matters?18:40 Israel–Palestine and American political divisions20:06 China's elite conflicts and military purges22:47 The 48-hour window for military operations23:25 China's White Paper protests and lockdowns25:30 How authoritarian leaders respond to dissent27:25 American alliances and political fragmentation28:30 Centralized versus distributed power30:50 Wartime powers and national unity33:12 How Chinese and Americans see each other34:55 Anti-Indian sentiment and regional grievances36:02 Cancel culture as a status competition38:39 How technology empowered cancel mobs41:05 The historical roots of woke ideology44:23 How social media collapsed cultural boundaries47:43 Defining woke and the limits of cancellation49:58 Noah joins a cancel mob52:24 When culture-war beliefs become policy54:36 Mississippi literacy reforms and luxury beliefs56:17 Why so few cancellation targets fought back58:10 Sincere beliefs and ideological contradictions01:00:05 Defining racism and rhetorical power01:02:30 AI-generated illustrations versus Excel charts01:03:30 Can AI accelerate its own development?01:04:14 AI coding and technical debt01:05:45 Will AI eliminate junior jobs?01:06:10 Lessons from 1980s Japanese employment01:08:00 Workplace trust and AI-powered generalists01:10:06 AI fraud, KYC and enduring companies01:12:23 Japanese small businesses and solopreneurs01:14:24 Labor hoarding and “messy jobs”01:16:10 Robots, factories and economies of scale01:18:00 AI moats and the return of physical capital01:19:14 Billionaires, status and shitposting01:20:54 Praying mantises and “nature is healing”01:24:05 Viagra, dopamine and libido01:26:06 Can technology solve sexual problems?01:28:05 Dating apps and extended adolescence01:30:10 Can tech sustain desire in long relationships?01:32:06 Artificial intimacy versus real love01:33:55 The short-form video “rapture”01:35:23 Why endless scrolling lowers quality01:36:50 Attention spans and entertainment fast food01:38:23 Books, artistic taste and status games01:40:07 Can we ever know someone's real motives?01:42:53 AI startups Noah has invested in01:45:05 Angel investing as a social activity01:46:35 Managing risk in angel investing01:48:12 Online avatars and bisexuality jokes01:51:30 Closing remarks

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