Prediction Markets Are a Scam With a Chart

Level up your note-taking with Plaud NotePro at https://bit.ly/4c9s3bC and use code “PBOYLE” for 10% OFF! Amazon: https://bit.ly/483LfoU #PLAUD #NoteTaker Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have been described as "truth machines" that produce more accurate forecasts than traditional polling. In this video we look at how they actually work, why the federal government is fighting individual states over who gets to regulate a bet on a football game, how a soldier allegedly used classified military intelligence to win money on a crypto betting site, and why quantitative trading firms are now paying traders $200,000 a year to build algorithms that systematically take money from retail bettors. We also look at the political connections behind these platforms, the academic research on the social cost of making it very easy to gamble from your phone, and why — after all of this — you still can't trade futures on onions. Patrick's Books: Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0 Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC Ways To Support The Channel Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance Buy Me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle Visit our website: https://www.onfinance.org Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://bsky.app/profile/pboyle.bsky.social Business Inquiries ➡️ sponsors@onfinance.org Patrick Boyle On Finance Podcast: Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7uhrWlDvxzy9hLoW0EYf0b Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/patrick-boyle-on-finance/id1547740313 Google Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/62862nve Join this channel to support making this content: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCASM0cgfkJxQ1ICmRilfHLw/join Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices