July jobs report: How a big headline miss may be overstating weakness

What should we make of a weak payroll print alongside a lower unemployment rate? In this episode of Making Sense, Lauren Brice from the North America Rates Sales team sits down with Mike Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist at J.P. Morgan, to unpack the July jobs report and what it implies for U.S. growth momentum in 2026. They discuss why the headline miss may overstate weakness, what steady-but-low private hiring says about layoffs and labor market “dynamism” and how participation and wage growth are shifting the inflation outlook. The conversation also covers sector signals like leisure and hospitality, the latest read-through from JOLTS, where (if anywhere) AI is showing up in the hard data and what upcoming CPI reports could mean for the next Fed move. This episode was recorded on August 7, 2026. This communication has been prepared based upon information from sources believed to be reliable, but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and/or its affiliates and an analyst's involvement with any company (or security, other financial product or other asset class) that may be the subject of this communication. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. J.P. Morgan Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. Periodic updates may be provided on companies, issuers or industries based on specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. However, J.P. Morgan may be restricted from updating information contained in this communication for regulatory or other reasons. This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of J.P. Morgan. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of J.P. Morgan. © 2026, JPMorganChase & Co. All rights reserved.