Geopolitics vs. markets: How might the US, China and Iran reshape global risk?

Markets have remained notably risk-on in 2026, even as geopolitical fragmentation, energy chokepoints and intensifying U.S.-China competition continue to raise the stakes for investors and businesses. In this episode of J.P. Morgan’s Making Sense, Joyce Chang, chair of Global Research at J.P. Morgan, is joined by Paul Haenle, head of APAC Policy and Strategic Competitiveness at J.P. Morgan, and Karim Sadjadpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, to unpack how the Middle East conflict could continue to unfold — and what elevated geopolitical risk means for global markets. They discuss the strategic objectives and end states of the conflict, how ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb could impact global oil and LNG flows, as well as how China weighs the risks of instability against the opportunities of U.S. distraction. The conversation also looks ahead to the September U.S.-China summit and explores how AI competition is reshaping the relationship between the world’s two largest economies. This episode was recorded on July 22, 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively, J.P. Morgan) normally make a market and trade as principal in securities, other financial products and other asset classes that may be discussed in this communication. This communication has been prepared based upon information from sources believed to be reliable, but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and/or its affiliates and an analyst's involvement with any company (or security, other financial product or other asset class) that may be the subject of this communication. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. J.P. Morgan Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. Periodic updates may be provided on companies, issuers or industries based on specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. However, J.P. Morgan may be restricted from updating information contained in this communication for regulatory or other reasons. This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of J.P. Morgan. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of J.P. Morgan. © 2026, JPMorganChase & Co. All rights reserved.