“So where’s this AI thing going?” by Seth Herd

The Overton window is shifting with statements like An Alien Mind from OpenAI's chief scientist and Jacob Coxon's viral statement on x-risk on resigning from Anthropic. I think we should try to push it further. This is my public-facing explanation of AI progress and x-risk, where we're at and where we're probably heading. Most LessWrong readers are up on pretty much all of this and have their own opinions; I'm offering it here in case anyone is interested in my communication strategy, giving me feedback, or sending friends this brief intro to AI x-risk and timelines, and FAQ because you like my approach here. My approach is bitter medicine with just a little sugar. I want to engage people more than I want to avoid scaring them, but I want to protect their feelings enough that they can handle thinking about this enough to believe it and engage. I follow the path of saying what I actually think, because softpedaling and being vague make you sound like a liar. But I do try to prepare the reader for the shock and explain why this all sounds so weird and hard to believe. This is my take, but it's [...] --- Outline: (01:43) What's going to happen with AI? (02:38) The future will be different, just like it's always been (05:18) NO FATE (06:02) AI will become a new species (08:04) Our offspring species could outcompete us, or care for us (10:56) Frequently Asked Questions (11:27) If this is such a big deal, why haven't I heard much about it? (14:15) Won't we program future AI to do what we want? (15:53) Isn't there something special about humans that AI can't duplicate? (19:10) Won't it take a long time to make AI that's a new intelligent species? (22:01) What the #$%#? Why are we building our replacements? (23:57) How did we get into this fix? (25:40) How can we still get a good future? (27:00) How do I learn more? --- First published: September 10th, 2026 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HGhrDWJngx2LX9TkF/so-where-s-this-ai-thing-going --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. --- Images from the article: Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.