In Moscow's Shadows 238: Bangers and Mish
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First, as the USA, Israel and Iran trade drone and missile strikes, how the war may play out for Russia: my sense is that on balance it will give Moscow more opportunities than headaches.
Then, from bangers to Mish: decoding Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s annual report to the State Duma. Think of a head butler in a grand house: no say in the party upstairs, every burden downstairs. The technocrats may plan to edge Russia from “gas station” to “supermarket,” but is this viable?
The Sunday Times article I mention is here, Ben Aris's BNE Intellinews piece here, and the signup page for Thursday's crisis exercise here.
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- 0:00Opening And Housekeeping
- 1:48Why Iran Matters For Russia
- 3:45Regime Change Limits And Risks
- 6:53Russia’s Gains And Setbacks
- 10:42Turkey, Kurds, And Refugee Fears
- 13:40Oil, Hormuz, And Insurance Shocks
- 16:55Missile Stockpiles And Ukraine
- 19:36The Rules-Based Order Unravels
- 24:48Moscow’s Messaging And Silence From Putin
- 28:35Escalation Cautions And Legal Lines
- 31:22Sponsor Note And Live Exercise Plug
- 33:36Mishustin’s Duma Report Framed
- 36:10The Head Butler Analogy
- 39:12Growth, Inflation, And Labour Strain
- 43:40War-Driven Industry And Empty Calories
- 46:28From Gas Station To Supermarket
- 50:12Budget Rules And Welfare Fund