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Global Security Briefing · Wednesday · 30 min

Brazil's Elections: Why Lula's Win Matters for Global Security

Dr Daniela Portella Sampaio joins Dr Andrew Gee to discuss the security implications of Brazil's 2026 election and Lula's fourth term. On 25 October 2026, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated far-right challenger Flávio Bolsonaro to win a fourth term as Brazil's president. Dr Andrew Gee, Director of the International Security Research Group at RUSI, is joined by Dr. Daniela Portella Sampaio, Senior Research Fellow for Latin American Security. They discuss what the result means for international security, for competition between the US and China, and for the fight against organised crime across South America. In this episode: Flávio Bolsonaro's flight to the US while under investigation, and what it means for US–Brazil relations. How Lula's win reshapes US–China competition in Brazil, including the BRICS group of emerging economies and the US dollar. Why Brazil's dominance of critical minerals such as niobium matters for global defence supply chains. Tackling organised crime and drug trafficking across South America. How an opposition-dominated Congress and right-wing state governors could constrain Lula. Strains in Mercosur, South America's main trading bloc. Opportunities for UK–Brazil defence and security cooperation.

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Dr Daniela Portella Sampaio joins Dr Andrew Gee to discuss the security implications of Brazil's 2026 election and Lula's fourth term.

On 25 October 2026, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated far-right challenger Flávio Bolsonaro to win a fourth term as Brazil's president. Dr Andrew Gee, Director of the International Security Research Group at RUSI, is joined by Dr. Daniela Portella Sampaio, Senior Research Fellow for Latin American Security. They discuss what the result means for international security, for competition between the US and China, and for the fight against organised crime across South America.

In this episode:

  • Flávio Bolsonaro's flight to the US while under investigation, and what it means for US–Brazil relations.
  • How Lula's win reshapes US–China competition in Brazil, including the BRICS group of emerging economies and the US dollar.
  • Why Brazil's dominance of critical minerals such as niobium matters for global defence supply chains.
  • Tackling organised crime and drug trafficking across South America.
  • How an opposition-dominated Congress and right-wing state governors could constrain Lula.
  • Strains in Mercosur, South America's main trading bloc.
  • Opportunities for UK–Brazil defence and security cooperation.

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