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Future Commerce · Friday · 54 min

How to Grow an eCommerce Business When the Math Doesn’t Math

Selling online has never been more expensive. Cheap channels are saturated, factory and freight costs have climbed, and ad platforms keep getting better at extracting margin from brands. For a lean DTC brand in 2026, the old math simply doesn’t math. Ecommerce economics are broken. Dave Stickland, Co-Founder and President of Popsmith, joins Phillip and Brian to share how he rebuilt Popsmith’s marketing from the garage up. Dave explains how agentic AI tools take his ad creative from concept to live in 24 hours, why AI slop is a skill issue, and why the next generation of agencies and creative strategists will be paid for vision, not execution. Chasing A Frontierless Future Key takeaways: There’s no more frontier for DTC brands. A decade ago, subsidized Amazon fees, direct access to overseas factories, and cheap paid social made healthy margins easy. Now factories sell against brands on Amazon, factory wages have doubled, freight costs have soared since COVID, and Meta keeps getting better at extracting ad spend. Contribution margin pays for everything below the line, including agencies, freelancers, and new hires. When that margin disappears, so does the budget to grow. AI creative is still not fully autonomous, but only works with scaffolding: product renders, brand context, and a clear process. It’s time for brands to extract new value from the creative library they’ve already paid for. Agencies will be paid to advise and build SOPs, not to execute inside the software. “You either own the software or the software will own what you do.” — Dave Stickland “What AI will never be is relational.” — Dave Stickland “The data set itself is what you are paying for, not the tool.” — Dave Stickland In-Show Mentions: Dave on X: The Math Doesn’t Math Shop the popcorn popper at popsmith.com Runneth by Motion Jamey Gannon’s The AI Creative Director course Future Commerce’s LORE Get tickets to VISIONS Summit, February 10, 2027 at MoMA Associated Links: The Growth v. Profitability Cage Match (Infinite Shelf) DTC Theory and The Innovator’s Dilemma (Ep. 253) [DECODED] The Power of AI-Enabled Ambition From Plastic to Patek: What AI and Watchmaking Have in Common The End of Outside: How to Future-Proof Your Career Against the AI Apocalypse Our Post-Funnel Future: Brand Ethos is the New Competitive Moat The Final Boss of Popcorn Buckets (The Senses) Check out Future Commerce on YouTube Check out Future Commerce Plus for exclusive content and save on merch and print Subscribe to Insiders and The Senses to read more about what we are witnessing in the commerce world Listen to our other episodes of Future Commerce Have any questions or comments about the show? Let us know on futurecommerce.com, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We love hearing from our listeners! Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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show notes

Selling online has never been more expensive. Cheap channels are saturated, factory and freight costs have climbed, and ad platforms keep getting better at extracting margin from brands. For a lean DTC brand in 2026, the old math simply doesn’t math.

Ecommerce economics are broken. Dave Stickland, Co-Founder and President of Popsmith, joins Phillip and Brian to share how he rebuilt Popsmith’s marketing from the garage up. Dave explains how agentic AI tools take his ad creative from concept to live in 24 hours, why AI slop is a skill issue, and why the next generation of agencies and creative strategists will be paid for vision, not execution.

Chasing A Frontierless Future

Key takeaways:

  • There’s no more frontier for DTC brands. A decade ago, subsidized Amazon fees, direct access to overseas factories, and cheap paid social made healthy margins easy. Now factories sell against brands on Amazon, factory wages have doubled, freight costs have soared since COVID, and Meta keeps getting better at extracting ad spend.
  • Contribution margin pays for everything below the line, including agencies, freelancers, and new hires. When that margin disappears, so does the budget to grow.
  • AI creative is still not fully autonomous, but only works with scaffolding: product renders, brand context, and a clear process.
  • It’s time for brands to extract new value from the creative library they’ve already paid for.
  • Agencies will be paid to advise and build SOPs, not to execute inside the software.
  • “You either own the software or the software will own what you do.” — Dave Stickland
  • “What AI will never be is relational.” — Dave Stickland
  • “The data set itself is what you are paying for, not the tool.” — Dave Stickland

In-Show Mentions:

Associated Links:

Have any questions or comments about the show? Let us know on futurecommerce.com, or reach out to us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or LinkedIn. We love hearing from our listeners!


Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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