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ForeCast · July 7 · 1 hr 41 min

Will We Put Data Centers In Space? (with Avi Parrack)

Avi Parrack is a physics PhD student at Stanford and a researcher at Forethought, where he works on AI, space expansion, and governance. He is the lead author of a recent Forethought report on orbital data centers. He joined Forethought’s Tom Davidson to discuss: What an orbital data center actually is, and why they’re suddenly being taken seriously Why the core case rests on cheaper energy from more intense and near-constant solar power Why orbital data centers hinge on SpaceX’s Starship bringing launch costs toward $100/kg or below Why cooling may actually not be a major issue Whether the inability to make repairs dooms orbital data centers Vulnerability of space data centers to kinetic attacks, and whether they would cause ‘Kessler syndrome’ debris cascades Why model-weight security might actually improve in orbit even as physical vulnerability rises If space becomes the cheapest place to scale compute and only SpaceX has the launch capacity, what the means for concentration of power, US–China competition, and the possibility of pausing AI Overall cost comparisons with terrestrial data centers The longer-run picture: when and how does the post-AGI industrial explosion spread to space? You can read a full transcript here. To see all Forethought's published research, visit forethought.org/research. To subscribe to our newsletter, visit forethought.org/subscribe.

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transcript

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show notes

Avi Parrack is a physics PhD student at Stanford and a researcher at Forethought, where he works on AI, space expansion, and governance. He is the lead author of a recent Forethought report on orbital data centers.

He joined Forethought’s Tom Davidson to discuss:

  • What an orbital data center actually is, and why they’re suddenly being taken seriously
  • Why the core case rests on cheaper energy from more intense and near-constant solar power
  • Why orbital data centers hinge on SpaceX’s Starship bringing launch costs toward $100/kg or below
  • Why cooling may actually not be a major issue
  • Whether the inability to make repairs dooms orbital data centers
  • Vulnerability of space data centers to kinetic attacks, and whether they would cause ‘Kessler syndrome’ debris cascades
  • Why model-weight security might actually improve in orbit even as physical vulnerability rises
  • If space becomes the cheapest place to scale compute and only SpaceX has the launch capacity, what the means for concentration of power, US–China competition, and the possibility of pausing AI
  • Overall cost comparisons with terrestrial data centers
  • The longer-run picture: when and how does the post-AGI industrial explosion spread to space?

You can read a full transcript here.

To see all Forethought's published research, visit forethought.org/research.

To subscribe to our newsletter, visit forethought.org/subscribe.

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