263 - Developments in modelling WUI fires with Arnaud Trouvé

Wildland-Urban Interface fires are a class of fires that deserves own models, own studies and a lot of research focus. This is what I discuss today with prof. Arnaud Trouvé from the University of Maryland, shortly before he has given his plenary talk at the recent Combustion Symposium in Kyoto. In this interview, Arnaud explains what makes wildland urban interface (WUI) fires and urban conflagrations so hard to predict, also with a focus on the combustion phenomena. 

Arnaud is interested in how the fires spread from the wildlife into the urban areas, and how to model this spread. The state of the art models for fire spread are lacking in here, due to how they perceive a fire front as a "line", whereas in cities we are looking at collection of compartment-household fires that may last for hours, and create a burning area kilometre wide. Therefore, we need new modelling approaches, and we need them at three scales - the scale of vulnerabilities of a parcel, a parcel-to-parcel setups and whole community scales.

To improve the state of the art, he breaks the problem into the scales that matter: indoor fire dynamics (where CFD can estimate structure burning), parcel-level exposure (where fire penetration is the missing link), and community-scale fire spread (where reduced order models dominate because fuel and building maps are often coarse). We dig into the practical modeling mechanics behind WUI simulators: 2D spread on gridded maps, simplified radiation and flame shape models, probabilistic firebrand transport, and the limits of one-way coupling where wind is prescribed but not influenced by the fire.

We also discuss an important bottleneck: the data. Satellite observations often arrive with poor temporal resolution, and controlled full-scale experiments are rare, which makes validation and scenario selection painfully uncertain. We also discuss why windows and near-structure fuels can be a universal pathway for loss, and why the field needs stronger shared infrastructure and collaboration to move faster. 

Congratulations on your plenary talk and thank you Arnaud for representing the fire community at the Combustion Symposium. Once Arnaud's plenary paper is published, I will update the show notes with a link!

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