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Exponential Learning · Wednesday · 17 min

ASML Q3 2026: Lithography and the AI Capex Engine

Alex and Jordan break down ASML's Q3 2026 results: record sales of 11.66B euros, 57.5% gross margin, raised full-year guidance to 44-45B euros, planned 2027-2028 supply that will not meet demand, the China and Match Act overhang, analyst reactions, and why the equipment layer says AI capex is supply-constrained, not demand-constrained.

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Alex and Jordan break down ASML's Q3 2026 results: record sales of 11.66B euros, 57.5% gross margin, raised full-year guidance to 44-45B euros, planned 2027-2028 supply that will not meet demand, the China and Match Act overhang, analyst reactions, and why the equipment layer says AI capex is supply-constrained, not demand-constrained.

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