Educate The Planet · Saturday

Three Ballot Boxes, Two Already Counted

People-powered, AI-Generated AI-assisted draft, verified, and corrected: Anthropic Claude Sonnet 5 Edited and curated by: Guy Wolf *Disclaimer: AI has been known to malfunction “hallucinate” therefore, a human-in-the-middle approach with a separate draft and verification AI has been used to provide the best quality, most accurate apolitical research on this topic Subscribe now Written Wednesday, October 28, 2026, and updated with the results from Brazil and Serbia. A word first about “captured” Whether a country has been captured by an authoritarian figure is something scholars argue about. The sources I found treat all three of these countries as under strain, not closed. Each held, or is about to hold, a real, competitive election within days of the others, and in each, independent courts have recently ruled against powerful people. That is a different situation from the dictatorships in Sharp’s book, and I think the difference matters. Hungary’s result in April, covered in Part 2, shows that when voters believe a system is tilted, a large enough turnout can still change it. This part describes each country as neutrally as the sources allow. It does not tell anyone how to vote. Brazil In the first round on October 4, Flávio Bolsonaro won 47.03 percent and Lula 45.16 percent. In the runoff held on October 25, Lula came back to win with about 51.8 percent to Flávio’s 48.2, a lead of roughly 4.4 million votes, according to the electoral court’s count as reported by news agencies. It was the first time a candidate who finished second in the first round has gone on to win a Brazilian presidential runoff. The evening was marked by chaos at some polling places after a Supreme Court justice’s last-minute decision to extend voting by two hours, which AP said may prompt legal action by Bolsonaro, and France 24 reported that Flávio Bolsonaro did not recognize the result. In August he had told a TV interviewer he would accept the outcome of the vote. Those reports were still developing when I last checked, and I have not seen the court’s final certification.1 Flávio’s father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, was convicted by the Supreme Court in September 2025 of plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election, and sentenced to 27 years and 3 months.2 The court found the plot failed for lack of military support, and it was the first time in nearly 140 years of the republic that military officers were punished for conspiring against democracy.3 He denies wrongdoing, and his supporters call the case persecution. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called it a “witch hunt.”4 Israel The vote was held on October 27, the first time since 1988 that a Knesset served its full four-year term. Exit polls showed no clear winner. With roughly three-quarters of the votes counted on October 28, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc was running at about 54 to 56 of the 120 seats, below the 61 needed, the opposition bloc led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot at about 47 to 49, and Arab-led parties at a record 18 or 19.5 Polls had suggested a defeat for Netanyahu’s coalition, which held 68 seats in the outgoing Knesset, and also that Israel’s fragmented system makes outcomes hard to call. Netanyahu said his bloc had a “decisive majority” among the Jewish and Zionist public, while his opponents said he had lost. A coalition must now be negotiated, and Netanyahu remains in office as a caretaker meanwhile.6 Netanyahu’s supporters say the 2023 judicial plan was meant to restore majority rule, and he has said Israel would remain democratic. Some observers, including writers in the New York Review of Books, argued even the protest movement’s idea of democracy was narrow.7 It is also a fact, and a bitterly contested one, that large numbers of Palestinians living under Israeli control cannot vote in Israeli elections. I include that because any honest talk of Israeli democracy has to face it, not because this series can resolve it. The United States All 435 House seats and a third of the Senate are up on November 3, and early voting has begun.8 The administration has twice used executive orders to change election rules, and a March 2025 order has largely been struck down in court, according to the advocacy group Protect Democracy as reported by Political.org.9 The administration has said it wants to address noncitizen voting. A UC Davis political scientist notes that research has found no evidence of significant fraud in recent U.S. elections, and worries that results will be questioned.10 A Gallup and Kettering Foundation survey of more than 23,000 adults, taken from April to June, found concern about the elections’ integrity is broad and not limited to one issue: fraud, intimidation, information and ballot handling all appear.11 One commentator argues the bigger threat is complacency, with voters deciding that showing up is pointless.12 Outside the voting booth, the “No Kings” protests drew roughly 7 million people on October 18, 2025, by organizers’ count, about 2 percent of the U.S. population and short of the 3.5 percent mark.13 Chenoweth’s research team found that protests in 2025 were overwhelmingly peaceful.14 I did not retrieve a source stating the administration’s own view of these protests, so I do not characterize it. Serbia: a concession on election night Serbia also voted on October 25, in a national parliamentary election. Aleksandar Vučić, who resigned the presidency in September to run for prime minister and whose party has governed since 2012, conceded that the student-led Student List had won, citing a sample of votes that projected 135 to 140 of 250 seats for the list and about 105 for his party.15 That is a projection from the loser’s own sample, and the official count will confirm or change it. If it holds, it shows what Hungary showed in April: a long-governing leader accepting a result that went against him. Whether the handover goes smoothly is the next test. Seven things that carry over These apply to anyone, whichever candidate they back, because Sharp’s toolkit does not care about party. His warnings about coups and would-be dictators are worded for any group that seizes power, of any ideology. Know how the count works, and trust the official certification process. In Serbia, the Philippines and Chile, independent counts were built before election day, so fraud would be visible. Look for the legitimate, nonpartisan versions of this in your own country, and use them. Decide in advance who you would call. The people who matter most if a result is ignored are the ones whose cooperation is needed: election officials, courts, security forces, workers. Know which of them will say no to a wrong order. Rehearse what you would not do. Violence hands any government a reason to crack down and shrinks the crowd. Do not threaten election workers, whoever you voted for. Be ready to accept a legitimate loss. Orbán conceded within hours in April, and Vučić conceded on election night in Serbia, as described above. A democracy depends on the loser’s cooperation as much as the winner’s. Wait for certified results, and be careful with rumors. In the Philippines, the signal that mattered was a measurable gap between an independent count and the official one. Rumors are not that signal. Keep building between elections. Unions, neighborhood groups, faith communities and clubs are Sharp’s “independent institutions.” They are what a movement has when the headlines move on. Look after each other. Sharp is blunt that defying power has costs. Check on people near you who feel scared this week. What to watch Signs that institutions are holding: results published in detail and matching independent counts; certification on the legal schedule; courts hearing complaints and ruling on them; the losing side conceding or going to court. Part 6 lists warning signs and how to read them. In brief Brazil voted on October 25 and Lula won, though reports said the loser’s camp had not accepted it. Israel voted on October 27 with no clear winner so far, and the United States votes on November 3. None of the three is a closed dictatorship, and treating them as one would be a mistake. Each is under strain in ways their own critics and defenders dispute. The right moves are to protect the count, wait for certified results, accept a legitimate loss, avoid violence, and be ready to refuse any illegitimate override together and peacefully. Something you can do today Look up how results are counted and certified where you live, and the date by which it must happen. Write the date down. Something you can share Whoever you vote for: protect the count, wait for certified results, accept a legitimate loss, and never threaten the people who run the election. #Election2026 About this article Written October 28, 2026, with Claude Sonnet 5.5 (knowledge cutoff end of June 2026). Election facts were verified by live search on this date and were still developing. The statement about Palestinians’ voting rights is from training knowledge and was not re-verified. Notes Agência Brasil, first-round results: agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br; NPR, “Brazil’s Left-Wing President Lula Elected for Fourth Term,” Oct. 25, 2026: npr.org; AP via PBS NewsHour, Oct. 25, 2026: pbs.org; France 24, Oct. 25, 2026: france24.com; Folhapress via Jornal de Brasília, “Flávio Bolsonaro diz que vai aceitar resultado das urnas,” Aug. 3, 2026: jornaldebrasilia.com.br. NPR via Michigan Public, “Brazil’s Ex-President Bolsonaro Sentenced to 27 Years for Coup Plot,” Sept. 11, 2025: michiganpublic.org. Aaj News, Sept. 12, 2025: aaj.tv; Solicitor News: solicitornews.co.uk. BBC report republished by Capital FM, “Bolsonaro Sentenced to 27 Years in Prison for Plotting Brazil Coup”: capitalfm.africa. Al Jazeera, “Knesset Dissolves: How Will Israel Vote in October’s General Election?,” July 17, 2026: aljazeera.com; Al Jazeera, “Israel Election Results: No Clear Winner Projected, What’s Next?,” Oct. 27, 2026: aljazeera.com; Al Jazeera, “Partial Results Show No Clear Winner in Israel Election,” Oct. 28, 2026: aljazeera.com; live count (secondary): poliwave.com. Reuters via The Edge Malaysia, July 29, 2026: theedgemalaysia.com; CNN live coverage, Oct. 27, 2026: cnn.com; Times of Israel liveblog, Oct. 27, 2026: timesofisrael.com. New York Review of Books on Israel’s protest movement: nybooks.com; Reuters via L’Orient-Le Jour, July 2023: lorientlejour.com. Outlook India, on early voting: outlookindia.com; Capital FM, “4 Pivotal Elections Around the World,” Jan. 2026: capitalfm.co.ke. Political.org, “With 15 Days Until Midterms, Election Law Expert David Becker Outlines Scenarios,” Oct. 19, 2026: political.org. UC Davis Magazine, “UC Davis Experts Share Worries, Hopes for 2026 Midterm Elections”: ucdavis.edu. Ellyn Maese and Jeffrey M. Jones, “Election Concerns Run High Ahead of 2026 Midterms,” Gallup: news.gallup.com. Washington Monthly, commentary on the midterms: washingtonmonthly.com. Talking Points Memo, “Donald Trump, ‘No Kings,’ and the ‘3.5 Percent Rule’”: talkingpointsmemo.com. Harvard Kennedy School, “Anti-Trump Protests Are Making Headway,” interview with Erica Chenoweth: hks.harvard.edu. Al Jazeera, Oct. 25, 2026: aljazeera.com; CNN, Oct. 25, 2026: cnn.com; Euronews, Oct. 25, 2026: euronews.com. Part 5 of the series “Power Is Borrowed.”

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People-powered, AI-Generated

AI-assisted draft, verified, and corrected: Anthropic Claude Sonnet 5

Edited and curated by: Guy Wolf

*Disclaimer: AI has been known to malfunction “hallucinate” therefore, a human-in-the-middle approach with a separate draft and verification AI has been used to provide the best quality, most accurate apolitical research on this topic

Subscribe now

Written Wednesday, October 28, 2026, and updated with the results from Brazil and Serbia.

A word first about “captured”

Whether a country has been captured by an authoritarian figure is something scholars argue about. The sources I found treat all three of these countries as under strain, not closed. Each held, or is about to hold, a real, competitive election within days of the others, and in each, independent courts have recently ruled against powerful people. That is a different situation from the dictatorships in Sharp’s book, and I think the difference matters. Hungary’s result in April, covered in Part 2, shows that when voters believe a system is tilted, a large enough turnout can still change it.

This part describes each country as neutrally as the sources allow. It does not tell anyone how to vote.

Brazil

In the first round on October 4, Flávio Bolsonaro won 47.03 percent and Lula 45.16 percent. In the runoff held on October 25, Lula came back to win with about 51.8 percent to Flávio’s 48.2, a lead of roughly 4.4 million votes, according to the electoral court’s count as reported by news agencies. It was the first time a candidate who finished second in the first round has gone on to win a Brazilian presidential runoff. The evening was marked by chaos at some polling places after a Supreme Court justice’s last-minute decision to extend voting by two hours, which AP said may prompt legal action by Bolsonaro, and France 24 reported that Flávio Bolsonaro did not recognize the result. In August he had told a TV interviewer he would accept the outcome of the vote. Those reports were still developing when I last checked, and I have not seen the court’s final certification.¹

Flávio’s father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, was convicted by the Supreme Court in September 2025 of plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election, and sentenced to 27 years and 3 months.² The court found the plot failed for lack of military support, and it was the first time in nearly 140 years of the republic that military officers were punished for conspiring against democracy.³ He denies wrongdoing, and his supporters call the case persecution. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called it a “witch hunt.”⁴

Israel

The vote was held on October 27, the first time since 1988 that a Knesset served its full four-year term. Exit polls showed no clear winner. With roughly three-quarters of the votes counted on October 28, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc was running at about 54 to 56 of the 120 seats, below the 61 needed, the opposition bloc led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot at about 47 to 49, and Arab-led parties at a record 18 or 19.⁵ Polls had suggested a defeat for Netanyahu’s coalition, which held 68 seats in the outgoing Knesset, and also that Israel’s fragmented system makes outcomes hard to call. Netanyahu said his bloc had a “decisive majority” among the Jewish and Zionist public, while his opponents said he had lost. A coalition must now be negotiated, and Netanyahu remains in office as a caretaker meanwhile.⁶ Netanyahu’s supporters say the 2023 judicial plan was meant to restore majority rule, and he has said Israel would remain democratic. Some observers, including writers in the New York Review of Books, argued even the protest movement’s idea of democracy was narrow.⁷ It is also a fact, and a bitterly contested one, that large numbers of Palestinians living under Israeli control cannot vote in Israeli elections. I include that because any honest talk of Israeli democracy has to face it, not because this series can resolve it.

The United States

All 435 House seats and a third of the Senate are up on November 3, and early voting has begun.⁸ The administration has twice used executive orders to change election rules, and a March 2025 order has largely been struck down in court, according to the advocacy group Protect Democracy as reported by Political.org.⁹ The administration has said it wants to address noncitizen voting. A UC Davis political scientist notes that research has found no evidence of significant fraud in recent U.S. elections, and worries that results will be questioned.¹⁰ A Gallup and Kettering Foundation survey of more than 23,000 adults, taken from April to June, found concern about the elections’ integrity is broad and not limited to one issue: fraud, intimidation, information and ballot handling all appear.¹¹ One commentator argues the bigger threat is complacency, with voters deciding that showing up is pointless.¹²

Outside the voting booth, the “No Kings” protests drew roughly 7 million people on October 18, 2025, by organizers’ count, about 2 percent of the U.S. population and short of the 3.5 percent mark.¹³ Chenoweth’s research team found that protests in 2025 were overwhelmingly peaceful.¹⁴ I did not retrieve a source stating the administration’s own view of these protests, so I do not characterize it.

Serbia: a concession on election night

Serbia also voted on October 25, in a national parliamentary election. Aleksandar Vučić, who resigned the presidency in September to run for prime minister and whose party has governed since 2012, conceded that the student-led Student List had won, citing a sample of votes that projected 135 to 140 of 250 seats for the list and about 105 for his party.¹⁵ That is a projection from the loser’s own sample, and the official count will confirm or change it. If it holds, it shows what Hungary showed in April: a long-governing leader accepting a result that went against him. Whether the handover goes smoothly is the next test.

Seven things that carry over

These apply to anyone, whichever candidate they back, because Sharp’s toolkit does not care about party. His warnings about coups and would-be dictators are worded for any group that seizes power, of any ideology.

Know how the count works, and trust the official certification process. In Serbia, the Philippines and Chile, independent counts were built before election day, so fraud would be visible. Look for the legitimate, nonpartisan versions of this in your own country, and use them.
Decide in advance who you would call. The people who matter most if a result is ignored are the ones whose cooperation is needed: election officials, courts, security forces, workers. Know which of them will say no to a wrong order.
Rehearse what you would not do. Violence hands any government a reason to crack down and shrinks the crowd. Do not threaten election workers, whoever you voted for.
Be ready to accept a legitimate loss. Orbán conceded within hours in April, and Vučić conceded on election night in Serbia, as described above. A democracy depends on the loser’s cooperation as much as the winner’s.
Wait for certified results, and be careful with rumors. In the Philippines, the signal that mattered was a measurable gap between an independent count and the official one. Rumors are not that signal.
Keep building between elections. Unions, neighborhood groups, faith communities and clubs are Sharp’s “independent institutions.” They are what a movement has when the headlines move on.
Look after each other. Sharp is blunt that defying power has costs. Check on people near you who feel scared this week.

What to watch

Signs that institutions are holding: results published in detail and matching independent counts; certification on the legal schedule; courts hearing complaints and ruling on them; the losing side conceding or going to court. Part 6 lists warning signs and how to read them.

In brief

Brazil voted on October 25 and Lula won, though reports said the loser’s camp had not accepted it. Israel voted on October 27 with no clear winner so far, and the United States votes on November 3. None of the three is a closed dictatorship, and treating them as one would be a mistake. Each is under strain in ways their own critics and defenders dispute. The right moves are to protect the count, wait for certified results, accept a legitimate loss, avoid violence, and be ready to refuse any illegitimate override together and peacefully.

Something you can do today

Look up how results are counted and certified where you live, and the date by which it must happen. Write the date down.

Something you can share

Whoever you vote for: protect the count, wait for certified results, accept a legitimate loss, and never threaten the people who run the election. #Election2026

About this article

Written October 28, 2026, with Claude Sonnet 5.5 (knowledge cutoff end of June 2026). Election facts were verified by live search on this date and were still developing. The statement about Palestinians’ voting rights is from training knowledge and was not re-verified.

Notes

Agência Brasil, first-round results: agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br; NPR, “Brazil’s Left-Wing President Lula Elected for Fourth Term,” Oct. 25, 2026: npr.org; AP via PBS NewsHour, Oct. 25, 2026: pbs.org; France 24, Oct. 25, 2026: france24.com; Folhapress via Jornal de Brasília, “Flávio Bolsonaro diz que vai aceitar resultado das urnas,” Aug. 3, 2026: jornaldebrasilia.com.br.
NPR via Michigan Public, “Brazil’s Ex-President Bolsonaro Sentenced to 27 Years for Coup Plot,” Sept. 11, 2025: michiganpublic.org.
Aaj News, Sept. 12, 2025: aaj.tv; Solicitor News: solicitornews.co.uk.
BBC report republished by Capital FM, “Bolsonaro Sentenced to 27 Years in Prison for Plotting Brazil Coup”: capitalfm.africa.
Al Jazeera, “Knesset Dissolves: How Will Israel Vote in October’s General Election?,” July 17, 2026: aljazeera.com; Al Jazeera, “Israel Election Results: No Clear Winner Projected, What’s Next?,” Oct. 27, 2026: aljazeera.com; Al Jazeera, “Partial Results Show No Clear Winner in Israel Election,” Oct. 28, 2026: aljazeera.com; live count (secondary): poliwave.com.
Reuters via The Edge Malaysia, July 29, 2026: theedgemalaysia.com; CNN live coverage, Oct. 27, 2026: cnn.com; Times of Israel liveblog, Oct. 27, 2026: timesofisrael.com.
New York Review of Books on Israel’s protest movement: nybooks.com; Reuters via L’Orient-Le Jour, July 2023: lorientlejour.com.
Outlook India, on early voting: outlookindia.com; Capital FM, “4 Pivotal Elections Around the World,” Jan. 2026: capitalfm.co.ke.
Political.org, “With 15 Days Until Midterms, Election Law Expert David Becker Outlines Scenarios,” Oct. 19, 2026: political.org.
UC Davis Magazine, “UC Davis Experts Share Worries, Hopes for 2026 Midterm Elections”: ucdavis.edu.
Ellyn Maese and Jeffrey M. Jones, “Election Concerns Run High Ahead of 2026 Midterms,” Gallup: news.gallup.com.
Washington Monthly, commentary on the midterms: washingtonmonthly.com.
Talking Points Memo, “Donald Trump, ‘No Kings,’ and the ‘3.5 Percent Rule’”: talkingpointsmemo.com.
Harvard Kennedy School, “Anti-Trump Protests Are Making Headway,” interview with Erica Chenoweth: hks.harvard.edu.
Al Jazeera, Oct. 25, 2026: aljazeera.com; CNN, Oct. 25, 2026: cnn.com; Euronews, Oct. 25, 2026: euronews.com.

Part 5 of the series “Power Is Borrowed.”

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