Winter hospitalisations will increase

Eight-week scenarios for daily hospital admissions in England R = 1.1 – green, (is much more possible through a range of many different situations) R = 1.5 – blue (also likely) R = 2.0 – red (a possible outcome, but highly unlikely) https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1017676/2021-09-14_COVID-19_Press_Conference_Slides__for_publication_.pdf Hospitalisations likely to rise, 2,000 to 7,000 per day next month https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58566235 Government's Plan B if the NHS faced unsustainable pressure Sir Patrick Vallance When you make a move, you have to go earlier than you think you want to, you have to go harder than you think you want to and you have to make sure you have got the right geographical coverage SPI-M-O: Consensus Statement on COVID-19 (SAGE) https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1017129/S1376_SPI-M-O_Consensus_Statement.pdf Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) The UK is currently experiencing high prevalence and likely entering a period of growth A time of significant uncertainty School holidays Possibility for further evidence to emerge on the duration of immunity against COVID-19 Possibly broader, longer peaks than those originally estimated Potential for another large wave of hospitalisations Increasing cases remain the earliest warning sign that hospital admissions are likely to rise Clear consensus that continued high levels of homeworking has played a very important role in preventing sustained epidemic growth Highly likely that a significant decrease in homeworking in the next few months would result in a rapid increase in hospital admissions If enacted early enough, a relatively light set of measures could be sufficient to curb sustained growth Current epidemic estimates UK (Health Security Agency) R in England is between 0.9 and 1.1 Growth rate is between -1% and +1% per day It is unclear how high prevalence and admissions may go without intervention. Reflections on modelling Step 4 of the Roadmap After step 4 of the Roadmap on 19th July Factors Schools closed for summer Changes in behaviour Changes in mixing patterns have been more gradual the population has not reduced their cautious behaviours as dramatically as was considered possible Warm weather More sunshine Large proportion of the population isolating after being identified as a contact of a case Imperial’s modelling ‘pessimistic scenarios’ which assume a three-year average duration of infection-induced immunity Does not consider any variants of concern beyond Delta Peaks occurring in October to December instead of August to October Highest levels seen in Step 4 Roadmap scenarios Will not be reached without waning immunity or a novel variant emerging Behaviour was assumed to be consistent across age groups If those at higher risk of morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 take greater precautions, levels of hospital admissions and deaths could be lower than those seen in the Roadmap modelling Vaccine effectiveness estimates continue to be refined There is now evidence of waning vaccine effectiveness particularly 140 days after the second dose Those individuals vaccinated in late 2020 and early 2021 will have less protection in the coming months Third doses and booster vaccinations, which are able to reverse waning of protection, will limit the impact of waning immunity Policy clarification Third doses for all over 50 or at increased risk UK Chief Medical Officers, advised vaccination aged 12 to 15 If acute COVID-19 combines with other pressures Long COVID Other infectious diseases, influenza, RSV, norovirus Co-infection of SARS-CoV-2 with other diseases Medium-term projections and scenarios They are neither forecasts nor predictions Cannot fu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices