The Anthropic IPO: How Much Does Anthropic Actually Owe?

On October 26th, Anthropic's public S-1 left its biggest number blank. On November 2nd, an amendment filled it in: approximately $895.4 billion, and the same page says $213.8 billion of it carries termination rights or conditions. As of November 2nd, 2026, here are six honest answers to how much Anthropic owes, from $6.2 billion borrowed to more than $1 trillion. Plus the third quarter, what Amazon, Alphabet, SpaceX and Broadcom told their own shareholders, and three new dated calls. Disclosure: this show is made with Claude, and Anthropic makes Claude. Check the sources, not the brand. OUR RECORD ON ANTHROPIC, MISSES INCLUDED (beyond the three calls scored on air) From The Anthropic IPO: What the $518 Billion Bill Actually Says - Moved: Microsoft near $31 billion; an October amendment made it at least $44.9 billion. - Miss: we called AMD flexible. It can't be cancelled without cause. - Moved: big contracts at about $71 billion a year by 2028; on the October 26th filing, about $96 billion. - Miss: a second paper charge of $9.4 billion, on notes with Google and Amazon. - Miss: the charge can keep running after the IPO. - Miss: Anthropic's charge ran about $15 billion past Amazon's pre-tax gain on the same notes. - Depends on the count: Fortune's $657 billion clears $518 billion; its $498 billion noncancelable doesn't. - Can't be graded: SpaceX's report had no cloud-only figure. From Two Models on Purpose - Miss: an S-1 within 90 days. It came 73 days late. Miss: no October IPO. - Hit, wrong reason: government revenue under 3%. The filing says under 2% in every period. From How Anthropic's Security Team Tracks Anti-AI Activists - Hit on dollars: a CEO security perk of at least $1 million. The filing shows $2,745,874 for 2025. From How Anthropic Actually Makes Money - Half answered: a projected $559 million quarter came in at $974 million of operating profit, unaudited. - Answered: the third quarter was a $567 million operating loss, though adjusted operating income rose. - Answered: the chips and data centers are mostly rented. Still open: a giant AI listing ends 2026 below its offer (The SpaceX IPO: Why the Biggest IPO in History Loses Money); the IPO slips or prices below a $380 billion value (How Anthropic Actually Makes Money). Totals labeled as ours are our arithmetic; the filing states none of them. RELATED EPISODES The Anthropic IPO: What the $518 Billion Bill Actually Says How Anthropic Actually Makes Money Why NVIDIA Paid 86 Times Revenue for Hugging Face — a supplier propping up its own customer CHAPTERS 00:00 One number left blank 01:54 Scoring our own October calls 02:37 The miss: SpaceX's ceiling 04:03 A hit, and why it's worth little 05:49 Six answers to how much Anthropic owes 06:50 The headline: $895.4 billion 09:30 Anthropic as a $60,000 household 10:50 What the third quarter changed 12:14 Was the second quarter the peak? 12:47 What Amazon told its shareholders 14:15 Alphabet, SpaceX and Broadcom 18:09 The founders, and the case on both sides 20:55 Three new calls 22:20 Check it yourself on EDGAR 22:53 So how much does Anthropic owe? SOURCES Anthropic S-1/A (Nov 2, 2026): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2130357/000162828026068676/anthropicpbc-sx1ax1.htm Anthropic S-1 (Oct 26, 2026): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2130357/000162828026067168/anthropicpbc-sx1.htm Amazon 10-Q, quarter ended Sept 30, 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000040/amzn-20260930.htm Broadcom 8-K (Oct 26, 2026): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000119312526434271/d148323d8k.htm ——— This episode is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice, nor a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Deep Dive is not a registered investment adviser and holds no positions in the companies discussed. All investing involves risk. Consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.