CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 41

Global Cocoa Market Summary Ivory Coast harvested 2.06 million tonnes between June 2025 and June 2026, up 30% year on year, while cumulative port arrivals reached 2.18 million tonnes by September 27, an increase of 19.8%. However, the 2026/27 crop is forecast at 1.8 million tonnes, down 18% from the previous season. Poor pod development, below-average rainfall in key growing regions, and excessive rain elsewhere are raising concerns over bean size, pod losses, black pod disease, and delivery delays. Heavy October rainfall has also damaged infrastructure and disrupted port logistics. Ghana's 2026/27 production is preliminarily estimated at 650,000 tonnes, down 13% from the 750,000 tonnes expected for 2025/26. Swollen shoot disease, weather risks, and variable rainfall continue to constrain output. Financing difficulties at COCOBOD add further pressure, with a significant shortfall against its funding target threatening purchasing capacity and increasing the risk of bean quality deterioration and cross-border leakage into Ivory Coast. Nigeria's production is forecast to decline 11% to 305,000 tonnes, despite an 18% year-on-year increase in July bean exports. In Togo, production rose 7% to approximately 23,084 tonnes, but exports fell 62.9% to 8,900 tonnes, highlighting persistent marketing and logistical challenges. Weather risks are intensifying across other producing regions. Severe drought in Sulawesi, Indonesia, is threatening the main harvest and increasing the vulnerability of cocoa trees to pod borer infestations, while Sumatra has received more adequate rainfall. In Ecuador, excessive precipitation in Los Rios, Guayas, and Manabi is raising concerns over frosty pod rot and damage to the mid-crop. The potential development of a historically strong El Nino also presents a significant risk to West African production and future crop conditions.