CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 40

Global Cocoa Market Summary Ivory Coast remains a major influence on the market. The country recorded an exceptional 2025/26 crop, with production reported about 30% above the previous year. However, early indications for the 2026/27 crop point to below-average development, delayed harvesting, and weaker initial deliveries. Reduced rainfall and rising disease prevalence add further risk, supporting a more bullish outlook for forward prices. Ghana has shown signs of recovery in the current crop despite declining expectations for 2026/27. Efforts to support the sector through pricing adjustments face financial challenges, including arrears owed to licensed buying companies. CocoaBOD's financial measures and productivity programs are intended to address resource constraints and improve support for farmers. Across other major producers, weather remains a key source of uncertainty. Nigeria's current exports are strong, but future shipments could contract because of compliance requirements associated with the EU Deforestation Regulation. Togo is seeing higher domestic production, but exports have fallen sharply as buyers face liquidity constraints, limiting the economic benefits of improved farm productivity. Indonesia faces prolonged dry conditions in Sulawesi that could damage flowering and pod development, while excessive rainfall in Ecuador is increasing disease risks and threatening crop quality during the mid-crop period. The broader cocoa market is being shaped by a narrowing surplus, lower production forecasts, regional differences in demand, and macroeconomic pressures. A strong US dollar and the emergence of El Nino conditions add further uncertainty to the market trajectory as the new season approaches.