Racing Records Decoded: Predicting OTTB Eventing Performance

In this episode Nancy McLean answers a listener’s question about choosing off-the-track Thoroughbreds (OTTBs) for eventing and reviews recent research on how past racing careers influence post-racing eventing levels. She summarizes Bacon et al. (2025), which found that shorter racing careers and longer race distances are associated with greater likelihood of reaching higher eventing levels, while long track longevity and involuntary retirements (injury/health) reduce that likelihood. Nancy also highlights factors like pedigree, early-life influences, and the importance of the rider–horse relationship. The episode offers practical tips — check racing records (Equibase), prioritize personality and a patient retraining timeline, and consider evidence-based retraining programs such as Kate Fenner’s Race2Ride. Bacon, E. K., Parnell, D., Muscatello, G., McElroy, J., & Velie, B. D. (2025). How prior racing performance influences competition level in off-the-track Thoroughbred horses' post-racing eventing careers. Journal of equine veterinary science, 154, 105679. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jevs.2025.105679 Race2Ride link: https://www.race-2-ride.com/a/2148257211/YJ65wKcd