Luck or Judgement?

Did Mark Zuckerberg build one of the world's greatest companies through extraordinary skill, or was he simply in the right place at the right time? Using Meta's $77 billion Metaverse gamble as a starting point, Fraser, Nick, and Peter explore one of the most important questions in business, sport and life: how do we distinguish luck from skill? The conversation ranges from chess and noughts-and-crosses, to Napoleon, David Bowie, Kubrick, Elon Musk and Einstein, examining whether repeated success is the strongest evidence of genuine ability. Along the way, the hosts discuss probability, decision-making under uncertainty, why outcomes alone can be misleading and whether "business genius" is often just survivorship bias in disguise.