When Will the AMOC Collapse? Lightning Round Interview with Peter Ditlevsen

In this special Climate Chat "Lightning Round" episode we discuss when the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) ocean current -- a major climate tipping point -- will shutdown. While the IPCC says the AMOC is unlikely to shutdown this century, a recent paper co-authored by Peter Ditlevsen says we could see the AMOC shutdown around mid-century... and possibly as soon as 2025!

Here is the link to the long interview with Peter: https://youtu.be/OYmCWkBwGpg

Note: This Lightning Round interview is separate from the long interview and is not an edited version of the long interview.

Timestamps:
0:00:46 Peter Ditlevsen’s introduction
0:01:18 What is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or AMOC?
0:02:02 How does the AMOC relate to the Gulf Stream?
0:02:52 How does the AMOC affect the way of life in Europe and other places?
0:03:43 What drives the AMOC ocean current?
0:04:31 Has the AMOC collapsed in the past?
0:05:23 How is climate change affecting the AMOC?
0:06:24 It’s hard to measure the past AMOC current directly. How did you study it?
0:07:31 Has the AMOC slowed downed recently?
0:08:58 On our current emissions path, what does your research say about when the AMOC will start shutting down?
0:09:49 Why does the IPCC say the AMOC will not shut down this century?
0:12:50 Why do you think you are correct and the IPCC is wrong?
0:13:14 If the AMOC begins to collapse, how long before it is “shut off”?
0:14:45 What impacts should we expect if it shuts down?
0:16:51 James Hansen says an AMOC shutdown may lead to “multi-meter” (10+ feet) sea level rise this century. Do you agree?
0:18:47 What can we do to try to prevent the AMOC from shutting down?
0:20:49 Can Sunlight Reflection Methods/Solar Radiation Management, ie, solar geoengineering, help prevent AMOC shutdown by refreezing Greenland and stopping fresh water inflow into the North Atlantic?
0:22:38 How should the threat of an AMOC collapse inform the discussion on climate action?
0:25:00 What AMOC questions will your next research paper try to answer?
0:26:51 Wrap up

Peter Ditlevsen is a professor of the physics of ice, climate and the Earth at the Neils Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen. Peter's home page:
https://nbi.ku.dk/english/staff/?pure...

Link to Peter's paper on AMOC collapse:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s4146...

Great PBS explainer on the AMOC:
https://youtu.be/f2evaLaDvCI?si=mXcVfmxQkF4w8wEC

For more Climate Chat episodes, see our YouTube home page:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3BXcpYFCzTndJ9Fisi32qg