126: How Drinks Brands Can Survive the Structural Reset With Jon and Matt Moramarco
transcript
show notes
Beverage alcohol is not simply in a downturn. It is undergoing a structural reset, according to Jon and Matt Moramarco of bw166.
In this episode of Business of Drinks, we talk with Jon, Managing Partner of bw166, and Matt, Chief Data Scientist, about what the total market data says is really happening across wine, beer, and spirits, and what founders and operators need to do differently as a result.
Their argument is that the industry can’t wait for the old market to return. Demographic change, affordability pressure, health concerns, changing social occasions, and new competition for consumers’ time and money are reshaping demand. The question is no longer simply, “When will the market recover?” It’s, “Where is demand moving, and how should brands respond?”
Jon and Matt also explain why beverage alcohol should be viewed as one market. Consumers move across categories, formats, occasions, and price points constantly. Every growth story is ultimately a fight for market share.
Wine may face the biggest challenge. Since 1994, overall consumer prices have roughly doubled and median household income has risen about 2.5X. But the average price of wine has climbed about 3.4X, while Napa Cabernet pricing has risen roughly 5.7X. Premiumization created significant value, but it also made wine more expensive, complicated, and risky for new consumers to explore.
In this episode, Jon and Matt unpack:
• Why the current slowdown looks structural, not cyclical• Why the industry may be losing drinking occasions more than drinkers• How single-serve formats and personalization are reshaping consumption• Why health messaging has become a public-relations challenge• The difference between shipments, depletions, and scan data• Why distribution gains mean little without reorders• The “black holes” in industry data, from on-premise to private label• Which metrics belong in investor decks, buyer pitches, and founder dashboards
For brands, the takeaway is clear: Stop chasing breadth for its own sake. Build depth where the product works, measure reorder and churn, improve the value proposition, and use data to understand what is actually happening, not just what the latest headline says.
For the latest updates, follow us:
Business of Drinks website (sign up for our newsletter!)
Erica Duecy, co-host: Erica Duecy is founder and co-host of Business of Drinks and one of the drinks industry’s most accomplished digital and content strategists. She runs the consultancy and advisory arm of Business of Drinks and has built publishing and marketing programs for Drizly, VinePair, SevenFifty, and other hospitality and drinks tech companies.
Scott Rosenbaum, co-host: Scott Rosenbaum is co-host of Business of Drinks and a veteran strategist and analyst with deep experience building drinks portfolios. Most recently, he was the Portfolio Development Director at Distill Ventures. Prior to that, he was the Vice President of T. Edward Wines & Spirits, a New York-based importer and distributor.
Caroline Lamb, contributor: Caroline is a producer and on-air contributor at Business of Drinks and a key account sales and marketing specialist at AHD Vintners, a Michigan-based importer and distributor.
Subscribe to the Business of Drinks channel for more insights on how brands, retailers, and operators are unlocking growth across beverages. And please rate and review us. Your support helps us reach new listeners. Thank you!
