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Bits + Bips

Why Bitcoin's Vol Index Is Already Pricing In the Odds of the Clarity Act Passing

July 25 · 30 min
0:00-30:58

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Cole Kennelly says Bitcoin's volatility index is already pricing in the Clarity Act, weeks before the Senate even votes on it.


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Bitcoin's Implied Volatility Index has quietly ticked higher in the 14-day tenor, and Cole Kennelly, founder and CEO of Volmex Labs, says the market is pricing in the Clarity Act before Congress finishes voting.

Kennelly joins Steven Ehrlich to unpack what Volmex's BVIV, BVIV-US, and EVIV indices are picking up as oil climbs past $100 a barrel, the ECB holds rates, and traders brace for the FOMC. He argues Bitcoin, already a settled CFTC commodity, has the least to gain from Clarity passing, while Ethereum, Solana, and Hyperliquid stand to benefit far more.

They trace the two-point premium between BVIV and BVIV-US to the transparency built into IBIT's regulated options market, and Kennelly compares Polymarket's BVIV and EVIV contracts to what perpetual futures once did for crypto derivatives.

With the Senate's August recess looming and Clarity's odds near a coin flip, the 14-day kink in his term structure may be the clearest signal anyone has.


Host:

Guest:

Timestamps 🎙️ 03:54 Cole breaks down Volmex's BVIV, BVIV-US, and EVIV — the benchmarks bringing real volatility pricing to crypto

📉 07:14 The Clarity Act just showed up as a kink in BVIV's 14-day term structure — here's why

💙 13:06 Cape: get 33% off six months of privacy-first mobile service at cape.co/unchained

🏦 14:41 Inside IBIT's $25B options market — and why BVIV and BVIV-US are starting to diverge

⚖️ 16:56 Ethereum and Solana have way more riding on Clarity than Bitcoin — here's the case why

🎲 22:29 Polymarket's big tie-up, and why Cole thinks prediction markets are basically perpetuals in disguise