Supervised Robotaxis Are Having a Moment. Unsupervised Robotaxis Are Having a Decade.

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s California regulatory moat, Cybercab’s pending commercial launch and Uber’s string of supervised launches in Europe and Dubai. In California, Waymo is completing 1.4 million fully autonomous rides per month, a 10X growth rate over two years. Additionally, the CPUC (California Public Utilities Commission) granted Waymo commercial driverless expansion authority across 40,000 square miles, covering roughly 25 million California residents and giving Waymo an estimated two-year regulatory moat over competitors. Waymo also opened service to all riders in Houston, its 10th market, with San Antonio likely to follow, and launched the Zeekr-built Ojai to all riders across San Francisco, Los Angeles and Phoenix while introducing its own custom silicon chip to boost compute performance and drive down vehicle costs. While Waymo continues to scale, Tesla is preparing for a Cybercab commercial launch in Austin following first-responder training sessions with local fire departments. Then there is Uber, which is focused on expanding globally. In Dubai, Baidu’s Apollo Go went live on the Uber app, allowing riders to explicitly select an autonomous ride or be assigned one when booking Comfort or UberX. In London, Wayve and Uber launched early trip access using supervised Ford Mach-E vehicles, though debate remains over who will secure the critical Autonomous Passenger Service (APS) permit. Pony AI also touted its growing Uber partnership during earnings, though its planned European expansion faced scrutiny over ODD limitations and safety driver supervision. In sidewalk delivery, Avride is expanding its autonomous campus delivery fleet to 1,000 bots across 25 universities this fall. Following its split from Uber, Serve Robotics quickly pivoted by cutting deals with DoorDash and Grubhub, expanding into San Jose and Washington, D.C., while promoting its Beacon platform to potentially disintermediate traditional delivery platforms for local restaurants. Episode Chapters 00:00 Waymo Racks Up the Miles in California 07:02 Airports Matter, In California Permits Matter More 09:50 Waymo Opens Houston to All Riders, San Antonio Likely Next 13:34 Waymo Opens Ojai to All Riders 16:21 Waymo's Declining Costs 19:28 New York City Does Not Want Robotaxis 21:28 The 100 Car Benchmark 25:05 Pony AI 28:09 Apollo Go Goes Live in Dubai 30:31 Wayve and Uber Launch Supervised in London. Who Gets the APS Permit? 36:17 Avride Expands Campus Delivery Bots 37:07 Serve Robotics Expands with DoorDash, Grubhub and Beacon 41:27 Next Week The Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy™ powered AUTNMY AI. Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary applied intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth. Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠team@lightshedtmt.com⁠⁠