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AI Explained · Yesterday · 27 min

You Are Being Told Contradictory Things About AI

With headlines of an imminent job apocalypse, code red for ChatGPT and recursive self-improvement, at the same time as Anthropic's CEO yesterday saying we know how to scale to AGI, and Gemini 3 DeepThink out today, it is easy to get lost among the narratives and counter-narratives. So here are both, plus the facts behind them, for you to decide. https://epoch.ai/ai-explained-datacenters Epoch AI is the sponsor of today’s video, and my views, and those expressed in this video, do not necessarily reflect Epoch AI’s views in any way. Chapters: 00:00 - Introduction 00:42 - Job Apocalypse? 01:45 - Scaling to AGI 04:15 - Recursive Self-Improvement Needed, or Not 09:57 - OpenAI Code Red vs Gemini 3 DeepThink vs Claude Opus 4.5 13:27 - DeepSeek Speciale vs Mistral Large v3 16:45 - Claude Soul Document https://lmcouncil.ai/ AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained Guardian Interview: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ng-interactive/2025/dec/02/jared-kaplan-artificial-intelligence-train-itself MIT Study on Jobs/Tasks: https://iceberg.mit.edu/report.pdf vs https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/26/mit-study-finds-ai-can-already-replace-11point7percent-of-us-workforce.html Amodei on Scaling: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEj7wAjwQIk Claude Soul Document: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vpNG99GhbBoLov9og/claude-4-5-opus-soul-document Capabilities Original Stance: https://www.anthropic.com/news/core-views-on-ai-safety Ilya Interview: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2 Ricursive Intelligence: https://x.com/RicursiveAI/status/1995932204703346946 Economist Worker Usage of GenAI: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/11/26/investors-expect-ai-use-to-soar-thats-not-happening#selection-1409.94-1413.42 Mistral v3 Large: https://docs.mistral.ai/models/mistral-large-3-25-12 Compute Slowdown Paper: https://joel-becker.com/images/publications/forecasting_time_horizon_under_compute_slowdown.pdf https://x.com/joel_bkr/status/1993023436541903155 METR Chart: https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/ https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openais-350-billion-computing-cost-problem?rc=sy0ihq OpenAI Code Red: https://www.anthropic.com/news/core-views-on-ai-safety Rocket Company: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/sam-altman-rocket-elon-musk-spacex-b2878351.html DeepSeek Paper: https://arxiv.org/html/2512.02556v1 DeepSeek Crowdstrike CCP: https://www.crowdstrike.com/en-us/blog/crowdstrike-researchers-identify-hidden-vulnerabilities-ai-coded-software/ https://simple-bench.com/ Patreon Post: https://www.patreon.com/c/aiexplained/posts Robot: https://x.com/jloganolson/status/1985850115379351799 Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/ Podcast: https://aiexplainedopodcast.buzzsprout.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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With headlines of an imminent job apocalypse, code red for ChatGPT and recursive self-improvement, at the same time as Anthropic's CEO yesterday saying we know how to scale to AGI, and Gemini 3 DeepThink out today, it is easy to get lost among the narratives and counter-narratives. So here are both, plus the facts behind them, for you to decide.


https://epoch.ai/ai-explained-datacenters

Epoch AI is the sponsor of today’s video, and my views, and those expressed in this video, do not necessarily reflect Epoch AI’s views in any way.


Chapters:
00:00 - Introduction
00:42 - Job Apocalypse?
01:45 - Scaling to AGI
04:15 - Recursive Self-Improvement Needed, or Not
09:57 - OpenAI Code Red vs Gemini 3 DeepThink vs Claude Opus 4.5
13:27 - DeepSeek Speciale vs Mistral Large v3
16:45 - Claude Soul Document

https://lmcouncil.ai/

AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained

Guardian Interview: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ng-interactive/2025/dec/02/jared-kaplan-artificial-intelligence-train-itself

MIT Study on Jobs/Tasks: https://iceberg.mit.edu/report.pdf
vs https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/26/mit-study-finds-ai-can-already-replace-11point7percent-of-us-workforce.html

Amodei on Scaling: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEj7wAjwQIk
Claude Soul Document: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vpNG99GhbBoLov9og/claude-4-5-opus-soul-document

Capabilities Original Stance: https://www.anthropic.com/news/core-views-on-ai-safety

Ilya Interview: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2

Ricursive Intelligence: https://x.com/RicursiveAI/status/1995932204703346946

Economist Worker Usage of GenAI: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/11/26/investors-expect-ai-use-to-soar-thats-not-happening#selection-1409.94-1413.42

Mistral v3 Large: https://docs.mistral.ai/models/mistral-large-3-25-12

Compute Slowdown Paper: https://joel-becker.com/images/publications/forecasting_time_horizon_under_compute_slowdown.pdf
https://x.com/joel_bkr/status/1993023436541903155

METR Chart: https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openais-350-billion-computing-cost-problem?rc=sy0ihq

OpenAI Code Red: https://www.anthropic.com/news/core-views-on-ai-safety
Rocket Company: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/sam-altman-rocket-elon-musk-spacex-b2878351.html

DeepSeek Paper: https://arxiv.org/html/2512.02556v1

DeepSeek Crowdstrike CCP: https://www.crowdstrike.com/en-us/blog/crowdstrike-researchers-identify-hidden-vulnerabilities-ai-coded-software/

https://simple-bench.com/

Patreon Post: https://www.patreon.com/c/aiexplained/posts

Robot: https://x.com/jloganolson/status/1985850115379351799




Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/

Podcast: https://aiexplainedopodcast.buzzsprout.com/

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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