Time Until Superintelligence: 1-2 Years, or 20? Something Doesn't Add Up

Superintelligence when? This question is more urgent than ever as we hear competing timelines from Inflection AI, OpenAI and the leaders at the Center for AI Safety. This video not only covers the what was said, it offers some data on what superintelligence is projected to be capable of. I discuss things that can hasten those timelines (see the new Netflix doc, Top 1% for Creativity and the AI Natural Selection paper) or slow it down (ft. Yuval Noah Hariri, the new Jailbroken paper, and more). And I end on some reflections of what it might mean to interact with a superintelligence (ft Douglas Hofstadter). Introducing Superalignment: https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment Odds of Success: https://twitter.com/janleike/with_replies?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor Mustafa Suleyman (Inflection AI) Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oAxNkehgzEU Inflection Supercomputer: https://www.tomshardware.com/news/startup-builds-supercomputer-with-22000-nvidias-h100-compute-gpus GPT 2030: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WZXqNYbJhtidjRXSi/what-will-gpt-2030-look-like Counterpoint: https://twitter.com/xuanalogue/status/1666765447054647297 Creativity Test: https://www.umt.edu/news/2023/07/070523test.php MMLU: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2009.03300.pdf Boston Globe CAI: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/07/06/opinion/ai-safety-human-extinction-dan-hendrycks-cais/ Yuval Noah Hariri Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/jul/06/ai-firms-face-prison-creation-fake-humans-yuval-noah-harari Jailbroken Paper: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2307.02483.pdf Suleyman Hallucination Tweet: https://twitter.com/mustafasuleymn/status/1678072401760796672?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet Killer Robots: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsSzNOpr9cE Automated Apple-picking: https://twitter.com/AiBreakfast/status/1677828971214282752 50 year Mortgages: https://www.ft.com/content/281fbba6-28e2-42d4-b241-0f215995f0d1 Heypi: https://heypi.com/talk Natural Selection Favors AIs over Humans: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.16200.pdf#:~:text=Natural%20selection%20may%20be%20a,designs%20to%20be%20selected%20naturally. Gödel, Escher, Bach author Doug Hofstadter on the state of AI today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfXxzAVtdpU&t=1763s https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained Non-Hype, Free Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices