New Google Model Ranked ‘No. 1 LLM’, But There’s a Problem

A new and mysterious Gemini model appears at the top of the leaderboard, but is that the full story? I dig behind the headline to show you some anti-climactic results, give some context with leaks in the last 48 hours of diminishing returns to scaling, and add the response of Altman, OpenAI and co. The future is about to look a lot stranger. 80,000 hours Podcast + Channel: https://open.spotify.com/show/2WzJwXWBDnn4iZ7odKwDib https://www.youtube.com/@eightythousandhours/videos You can now gift memberships to AI Insiders (my Patreon w/ exclusive vids, network): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplained/gift Chapters: 00:00 - Introduction 01:25 - LM Leaderboard 02:35 - Benchmarks and Leaks 05:31 - Low EQ 07:37 - Other labs have issues too though 10:31 - OpenAI claim and counter-claim 14:13 - Other news ‘There is no wall’: https://x.com/sama/status/1856941766915641580 simple-bench.com https://x.com/vedantmisra/status/1857148554105544708 Gemini Ranking: https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard API not yet up: https://x.com/OfficialLoganK/status/1857106844805681153 ‘Just Die Chat’: https://x.com/koltregaskes/status/1856754648146653428 https://gemini.google.com/share/6d141b742a13 Google CEO tweet: https://x.com/sundarpichai/status/1857114106928718329 Sutskever Quote: https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-rivals-seek-new-path-smarter-ai-current-methods-hit-limitations-2024-11-11/ Another OpenAI Staffer Leaves: https://x.com/RichardMCNgo/status/1856843040427839804 Bloomberg Report: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/openai-google-and-anthropic-are-struggling-to-build-more-advanced-ai?s=09 Noam Brown on what OpenAI Researchers Believe: https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1855037689533178289 Clive Chan: https://x.com/itsclivetime/status/1855704120495329667 Chollet Responds to Altman: https://x.com/fchollet/status/1857060079586975852 https://x.com/sama/status/1856940152460869718 Altman Emails: https://x.com/TechEmails/status/1857285960997712356 Change of Heart: https://sd11.senate.ca.gov/news/senator-wiener-responds-openai-opposition-sb-1047 Amodei on ‘Empirical Regularities’: https://lexfridman.com/dario-amodei-transcript/ Verge Report: https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/25/24279600/google-next-gemini-ai-model-openai-december OpenAI Agents in January: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-13/openai-nears-launch-of-ai-agents-to-automate-tasks-for-users?srnd=phx-ai The 8 Most Controversial Terms in AI: https://imp.i384100.net/m57g3M Non-hype Newsletter: https://signaltonoise.beehiiv.com/ Podcast: https://aiexplainedopodcast.buzzsprout.com/ I use Descript to edit my videos: https://get.descript.com/ldgxfuj2bhnb Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices